Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Brexit: Support Theresa May. At Least for Now

Brexit: Support Theresa May. At Least for Now.

Brexit: Support Theresa May. At Least for Now.

I argued earlier that a major flaw with the Brexit referendum was lack of any positive program in case of leave wins. The current political spectacle in London is an attempt to define such a program, and the withdrawal deal that Theresa May has negotiated is one related proposal. It satisfies no-one. But it is the only realistic compromise we are now left with.

The central problem with Brexit

The central problem with Brexit now, 2.5 years after the referendum, is still the same: Britons cannot agree what "leave" means. The country is fairly equally split between leavers and remainers, and unfortunately these two opposite preferences are hard to reconciliate. The options in the middle, along the lines of the "Norway option", satisfy only a few.

I think the best way forward in summer 2016 had been simply to take time off. Theresa May could have started her prime ministership by asking: Well, voters. You want out? So let's see what kind of options we have here, and what do you think about these. And waited with triggering the article 50 until she had an answer to these question. Unfortunately, this was not the case. There were no attempts to start a serious discussion about what Brexit may mean, and what kind of compromises are possible.

I do not see such attempts now either. The prime minister's repeated claims that there will be no second referendum sounds like "I don't care about which Brexit you want." Moreover, accusing those who are worried with no-deal outcome for torpedoing the negotiators and being part of the "project fear" is neither an invitation to a serious dialogue. Instead of trying to build a consensus, at least a somewhat consensus, the leaders are pushing to implement their own favorite flavor of Brexit. This has not worked well, but mainly because there is no consensus in the Conservative party either, and not because of concerns regarding the "will of the people".

IMG 2797 Manchester anti-Brexit protest for
       Conservative conference, October 1, 2017
It is not just that Britons cannot agree on what does leave mean. A large number of people do not want to leave EU at all. Anti-Brexit march at Conservatives' conference, Oct 1st, 2017.

Take time off now

But I don't think the second referendum is a good idea. It would suffer from some of the same flaws as the first one. While we now can offer a positive program, for instance "no deal", "May's deal", and "remain", the majority of votes will probably go to both of the extreme options, and that will give a closely split vote again. Hence there will again be no clear mandate about how to proceed. But the political battle over the exact wording of the question, the pre-referendum campaign, and post-referendum interpretation will deepen the existing cleavages, increase resentment and undermine support for the democratic institutions in Britain.

I think what UK needs now instead is just time off. It cannot have time off as EU member any more, at least not without a rushy U-turn and without badly hurting the feelings of the large group of leave-minded people. I think we should have a second referendum. But not now. Let's the smoke clear and contours of the post-Brexit world appear. Let also one of the options garner clearly more support than the alternatives.

But so far, let's take Theresa May's deal. No one is happy with it, I know. I am not happy either. But it is a realistic deal, and it allows UK to stay in the EU-s "waiting room" while it attempts to understand if it wants to enter again or leave for good. Call this "transition period". But the transition is not about the trade negotiations, but about UK trying to transition into a country that can somewhat agree on it's future.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

What is wrong with referendums vol 2: Brexit

What is wrong with referendums vol 2: Brexit

What is wrong with referendums vol 2: Brexit

In a previous post I discussed some of the problems with referendums. Brexit referendum had it's share of issues. I'll discuss here two of these.

Restricted categories of voters

First, it violated the principle that everyone who has large stakes in the process can have a say. Two groups that are most affected by British EU membership and it's potential termination are the EU citizens living in UK, and UK citizens living on the continent. Unfortunately, these two groups had limited voting opportunites. British expats can only vote up to 15 years after leaving the UK, and Non-British EU citizens (except Irish, Maltese, and Cypriots) were excluded by a political decision. Maybe exaggerating a bit, but one may say that only those who weren't using the EU provided free movement were deciding it's fate.

In a broader sense it is a common situation: migrants usually cannot vote (despite paying taxes) in their new host countries, and often find it hard or impossible to vote in their countries of origin as well, so migration-related policies are decided by people who are not moving. This is partly because of design, insiders are keen to keep their exclusive rights, but partly due to insiders' inherently better knowledge and better networks.

No positive question

Second, the referendum asked a "negative" question—there was little indication what will happen in case "leave" wins. If "stay" had won, the answer had been simple—more of the same. But leavers had no positive program, and one can argue that leave voters may have voted for very different and incompatible ideas.

Brexit referendum ballot
One of the central issue with the Brexit referendum was lack of any positive program. Two years later, the UK government is still debating what does "Leave the European Union" mean.

If one disregards the slight margin, one can still argue that leaving the EU was "will of the people". However, one cannot extend this claim to any particular type of Brexit, or to any particular reason, such as immigration. These claims are either based on polls or some other kind of interpretation. But polls and interpretations are just that—polls and interpretation—and not the "will of the people".

It looks like Britons have currently at least two incompatible "wills". Because of the slight margin and blurred options, the referendum gave a mandate not for leaving the EU, but to bring the UK and EU relationship back to the drawing board. This may mean leaving the EU but that should be a different decision, taken years later, and including a positive program for what will happen in that case.